The full article is directly below this one, here:
https://ydydy.substack.com/p/the-only-mistake
tl;dr?
Haniyeh's main goal was to make Israel look bad by killing thousands of Gazan youth within 20 minutes.
Netanyahu has long been aware that this is the primary goal of the Gazan leadership, but because he was unprepared for an actual breach of this magnitude, he had no plan in place about what to do in exactly this scenario and defaulted to what he's been telling himself for 20 years "don't overreact. don't overreact".
That is generally the correct concern.
But not in this case.
Had the leadership not been beholden to their "konceptzia" (a term referring to the government's overconfidence in 1973) that an invasion like this wasn't possible they would have thought out this scenario in advance and responded much quicker.
There's enough blame to go around for everyone, even me and you…